probability

Probabilities are not readily available in the world around us. Expressing uncertainty, probability represents precisely what is epistemically unavailable to us. Also the concepts chaos and free choice indicate a lack of predictability of the world. Probability is distinct from chaos and free will in that it presupposes some type of long run regularity. In this section we shall deal with questions such as how probabilities can be assessed and evaluated and to what extent …

…that are not directly related to any frequency ideas: the idea of risk neutrality and the principle of insufficient reason. We shall briefly discuss some Bayesian calculations. Further mathematical details are placed in the appendix. We shall then return to the Sunrise example and show that the world cannot be considered as a list of probabilities. This will call upon the personalist --- but not only on her --- to show moderation in `finding' probabilities.